Historical Scenarios

What the raw numbers said on the eve of history's great wars — and what history did to them. Each scenario: the starting balance of forces, our model's verdict, and what actually happened.

Invasion of Poland (1939): Germany vs Poland1939Invasion of Poland (1939): Germany vs PolandGermany vs Poland Battle of France (1940): Germany vs Allies1940Battle of France (1940): Germany vs AlliesGermany vs France, Britain & Benelux Operation Barbarossa (1941): Germany vs USSR1941Operation Barbarossa (1941): Germany vs USSRGermany & Axis allies vs USSR (western districts) Pacific War (1941): Japan vs United States1941Pacific War (1941): Japan vs United StatesEmpire of Japan vs United States Operation Unthinkable (1945): Western Allies vs USSR1945Operation Unthinkable (1945): Western Allies vs USSRUSA, Britain & Allies (in Europe) vs USSR (in Europe) Korean War Outbreak (1950): North vs South1950Korean War Outbreak (1950): North vs SouthNorth Korea vs South Korea Six-Day War (1967): Israel vs Arab Coalition1967Six-Day War (1967): Israel vs Arab CoalitionIsrael vs Egypt, Syria & Jordan Yom Kippur War (1973): Egypt & Syria vs Israel1973Yom Kippur War (1973): Egypt & Syria vs IsraelEgypt & Syria vs Israel Falklands War (1982): United Kingdom vs Argentina1982Falklands War (1982): United Kingdom vs ArgentinaUnited Kingdom vs Argentina Gulf War (1991): Coalition vs Iraq1991Gulf War (1991): Coalition vs IraqUS-led Coalition vs Iraq

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