Methodology
Data sources
- World Bank Open Data (SIPRI-based series) — military expenditure, armed forces personnel, population, GDP. Latest available year per country, 2023–2025.
- Open equipment listings (IISS-derived, via Wikipedia) — tanks, warships, combat aircraft, helicopters, satellites.
- Arms Control Association — nuclear warhead estimates.
Power Index
Each component is log-normalized against the world leader (score = log(1+x) / log(1+max)), then weighted:
| Component | Weight |
|---|---|
| Defense budget | 25% |
| Active personnel | 15% |
| Combat aircraft | 15% |
| Fleet strength score | 15% |
| Main battle tanks | 10% |
| Nuclear warheads | 10% |
| Attack helicopters | 5% |
| Military satellites | 5% |
Fleet strength weights ships by class: carriers ×10, nuclear submarines ×6, cruisers ×4, destroyers ×3, frigates and amphibious ships ×2, corvettes and conventional submarines ×1–2.
Conflict model
The simulator computes an effective power for each side from air, land and sea components, multiplied by a technology factor derived from spending per active soldier. Win probability follows a power-law contest function; projected duration grows as forces approach parity; loss ranges reflect force exposure and are shown with ±30% uncertainty bands.
What the model ignores
Doctrine and training quality, terrain and geography, logistics depth, alliance commitments, morale, industrial mobilization and cyber capabilities. Results are statistical illustrations for education and entertainment — not predictions.